Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Jul 1983
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1983rpsba..17..106a&link_type=abstract
In its USSR Rept.: Space Biol. and Aerospace Med., Vol. 17, No. 3, May - Jun. 1983 (JPRS-83828) p 106-109 (SEE N83-35606 23-51
Mathematics
Logic
Algorithms, Interplanetary Space, Pattern Recognition, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Radiation Hazards, Solar Activity, Classifications, Evolution (Development), Heliosphere
Scientific paper
Methods for predicting manifestations of solar activity based on pattern recognition theory were developed. The logical procedure for solving problems of forecasting solar activity is similar to forecasting by the synoptic method, but it is objective and can be fully automated. The actual execution of the scheme consists of the following: the general forecasting problem is formulated as forecasting the possible evolution of an active region, while forecasting proper is reduced to successive determinations of the class to which an observed active region (AR) belongs; classification of regions is made on the basis of solving rules selected by recognition methods, and one can use different sets of base data and different algorithms at each stage of formation of the forecast. Several problems of forecasting manifestations of solar activity were solved on the basis of the algorithms developed. In conclusion, it can be stated that the methods of pattern recognition theory make it possible to obtain satisfactory results in solving problems of forecasting the manifestations of solar activity that have a direct effect on the radiation situation in near Earth space.
Avdyushin S. I.
Berlyand B. O.
Burov V. A.
Dernshteyn P. B.
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