Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Sep 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008epsc.conf..461p&link_type=abstract
European Planetary Science Congress 2008, Proceedings of the conference held 21-25 September, 2008 in Münster, Germany. Online a
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Large transneptunian objects are being discovered at a sustained rate of about four candidate dwarf planets every year on average. This rate should further accelerate when powerful sky surveys such as PANSTARRS or LSST become fully operational. But huge uncertainties remain on their characteristics, especially their actual diameter or the presence of an atmosphere. More certainties will have to be acquired by a mean or another to establish a preliminary ranking among these objects in terms of interest for planetary scientists. Yet they remain beyond the spatial resolution capability of even Hubble or Spitzer. Star occultations (fig. 1) represent unique opportunities to characterize large TNOs, their size, their potential atmosphere, their shape... Such occultations enabled to learn a lot about Pluto (fig. 2) in the past. But the probability for a shadow cone cast by a star occultation to pass right over Earth is relatively limited. On the opposite, when considering this time the vicinity of Earth, close pass-bys are relatively frequent. One can get such a preliminary information about large transneptunian objects by having two, three or four COROT-class small space telescopes, flying in a distant and loose formation, crossing on purpose the shadow cones of the lowest absolute magnitude objects at different distances from the cone axis. We discuss here the possibility for a reduced group of such small telescopes to accomplish a number of shadow cones crossings that is large enough to justify a space mission. Also, complementary missions can be considered, such the exploration of the Outer solar system by serendipitous stellar occultations by permanent monitoring of well chosen target stars. The aim is to explore the small end of the size distribution and the outer part of the Kuiper Belt as the vast transneptunian area. A challenge is the possibility to explore the Oort Cloud, as a comet of few kilometers is detectable at several thousands of astronomical units. The number of spacecrafts is traded versus the significance of the measured contour. The rough order of magnitude of the required cumulated delta-V is assessed as a function of the orbits of the spacecrafts, around Earth or Sun-Earth L2 point. We also consider how to handle the uncertainties on the astrometry of the transneptunian object, which subsequently affect the knowledge of the actual position of the occultation cone, so as to guarantee a successful rendezvous. We conclude by discussing the interest of such a space mission, either as a mission per se or as a secondary objective of another multi-telescope mission.
Martinot Vincent
Petit Jm.
Poncy Joel
Roques Françoise
Sicardy Bruno
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