Characterization of Exoplanet Orbits Using a Monte Carlo Bayesian Analysis

Details Characterization of Exoplanet Orbits Using a Monte Carlo Bayesian Analysis Characterization of Exoplanet Orbits Using a Monte Carlo Bayesian Analysis

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006aas...20916914a&link_type=abstract

2007 AAS/AAPT Joint Meeting, American Astronomical Society Meeting 209, #169.14; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society,

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

This poster discusses the problem of “recovery” of an exo-planet. Recovery refers to observations of exo-planets after the initial look. Previously introduced Monte Carlo models are used to calculate all of the probable positions of an exo-planet after an initial observation. During this initial look, the exo-planet may either be detected or not detected. We present the probable positions of the exo-planet as a function of time between the first and second observations, for both the detected and not-detected cases. This set is used to generate the following information: probability of exo-planet residency in its stellar habitable zone; likelihood of exo-planet detection if not detected during the initial look; completeness as a function of recovery time; and optimal time intervals between successive observations. We include our top 20 list of stars that may harbor terrestrial planets.

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