Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Apr 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003eaeja....13401s&link_type=abstract
EGS - AGU - EUG Joint Assembly, Abstracts from the meeting held in Nice, France, 6 - 11 April 2003, abstract #13401
Mathematics
Logic
Scientific paper
Atmospheric levels of CO_2 are commonly assumed to be the main driver of global climate. Independently, empirical evidence suggests that the galactic cosmic ray flux (CRF) is linked to climate variability. Both drivers are presently discussed in the context of daily to millennial variations. To the extent that they actually exist, they should also operate over geological time scales. Here we analyse the reconstructed low-latitude sea surface temperature over the Phanerozoic (past 545 Myr), and compare it with the variable CRF reaching the Earth and with the reconstructed partial pressure of atmospheric CO_2 (pCO_2). We find that at least 66% of the variance in the reconstructed temperature trend can be attributed to CRF variations arising from solar system passages through the spiral arms of the galaxy, an observation that enables us to estimate the CRF/temperature relationship. Assuming that the entire residual variance in temperature is due solely to the CO_2 greenhouse effect, or that one of the reconstructed Phanerozoic pCO_2 trends is validated, we can place an upper limit to the long-term "equilibrium" warming effect of CO_2, one which is potentially lower than that based on general circulation models (GCMs).
Shaviv Nir
Veizer Ján
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