Statistics – Methodology
Scientific paper
Mar 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003georl..30e..32j&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 5, pp. 32-1, CiteID 1228, DOI 10.1029/2002GL016377
Statistics
Methodology
10
Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Global Change: Climate Dynamics (3309), Global Change: Solar Variability, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620), Volcanology: Atmospheric Effects (0370)
Scientific paper
We investigate the causes of temperature change over the last four decades, both near the surface and in the free atmosphere, using a coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model, HadCM3, which requires no flux correction. We use an 'optimal detection' methodology to examine zonal mean temperatures near the surface and on nine diagnosed pressure levels throughout the atmosphere over the last four decades of the 20th Century. This produces a space-time-multivariable detection analysis which for the first time includes both solar and volcanic forcings in addition to anthropogenic forcings. Our results strengthen the case for an anthropogenic influence on climate. Unlike previous studies we attribute observed decadal-mean temperature changes both to anthropogenic emissions, and changes in stratospheric volcanic aerosols. The temperature response to change in solar irradiance is also detected but with a lower confidence than the other forcings.
Jones Gareth S.
Stott Peter A.
Tett Simon F. B.
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