Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments

Details Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments

2010-07-26

arxiv.org/abs/1007.4580v2

Statistics

Computation

17 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables; revised

Scientific paper

Most surrogate models for computer experiments are interpolators, and the most common interpolator is a Gaussian process (GP) that deliberately omits a small-scale (measurement) error term called the nugget. The explanation is that computer experiments are, by definition, "deterministic", and so there is no measurement error. We think this is too narrow a focus for a computer experiment and a statistically inefficient way to model them. We show that estimating a (non-zero) nugget can lead to surrogate models with better statistical properties, such as predictive accuracy and coverage, in a variety of common situations.

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