Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
May 2007
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007georl..3409702m&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 9, CiteID L09702
Mathematics
Probability
3
Biogeosciences: Carbon Cycling (4806), Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Global Change: Earth System Modeling (1225), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Global Change: Impacts Of Global Change (1225)
Scientific paper
Positive carbon-cycle feedbacks have the potential to reduce natural carbon uptake and accelerate future climate change. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to incorporating carbon-cycle feedbacks into probabilistic assessments of future warming. Using a coupled climate-carbon model, we show that including carbon-cycle feedbacks leads to large increases in extreme warming probabilities. For example, for a scenario of CO2 stabilization at 550 ppm, the probability of exceeding 2°C warming at 2100 increased by a factor of between 1.7 and 3, while the probability of exceeding 3°C warming increased from a few percent to as much as 22%. CO2 fertilization was found to exert little influence on the amount of future warming, since increased carbon uptake was partially offset by fertilization-induced surface albedo changes. The effect of positive carbon-cycle feedbacks on the likelihood of extreme future warming must be incorporated into climate policy-related decision making.
Keith David W.
Matthews Damon H.
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