Campaigns to Monitor Predicted Mesolensing Events

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

When a nearby high-proper-motion star moves in front of a crowded stellar field, there is a high probability that it will lens one of the background stars. Lensing events can, in fact, be predicted. This makes it important to answer the question: when a lensing event is predicted, how best to plan an observing campaign to study the event and extract the parameters of the lens? How can we use such campaigns to discover planets or to compute the probability that the lens star has planets? We will discuss the specific example of the mesolens VB 10, which will have lensed a background star in December of 2011. Although the predicted low magnification and the presence of the Sun near the event location will have made conditions less than ideal for the study of this event, constraints on planets may have been derived by the time of the talk. Whatever the results,we will discuss what we learned by planning for this first-ever predicted mesolensing event. We will discuss the prospects for future predictions of individual events and of statistical predictions of multiple high-probability events.

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