Bayesian Tracking of Emerging Epidemics Using Ensemble Optimal Statistical Interpolation (EnOSI)

Details Bayesian Tracking of Emerging Epidemics Using Ensemble Optimal Statistical Interpolation (EnOSI) Bayesian Tracking of Emerging Epidemics Using Ensemble Optimal Statistical Interpolation (EnOSI)

2010-09-25

arxiv.org/abs/1009.4959v1

Statistics

Computation

15 pages, 5 figures. JSM 2010

Scientific paper

We explore the use of the optimal statistical interpolation (OSI) data assimilation method for the statistical tracking of emerging epidemics and to study the spatial dynamics of a disease. The epidemic models that we used for this study are spatial variants of the common susceptible-infectious-removed (S-I-R) compartmental model of epidemiology. The spatial S-I-R epidemic model is illustrated by application to simulated spatial dynamic epidemic data from the historic "Black Death" plague of 14th century Europe. Bayesian statistical tracking of emerging epidemic diseases using the OSI as it unfolds is illustrated for a simulated epidemic wave originating in Santa Fe, New Mexico.

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