Bayesian Orbit Determination from Ground-Based Optical Telescopes

Details Bayesian Orbit Determination from Ground-Based Optical Telescopes Bayesian Orbit Determination from Ground-Based Optical Telescopes

Jan 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011aas...21733416s&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #217, #334.16; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 43, 2011

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

We describe a Bayesian sampling model for linking and constraining orbit models from angular observations of "streaks" in optical telescope images. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of multiple orbit models (up to the number of observations) and parameters describing the membership probability of each observed streak in each orbit model. Our algorithm allows both for robust preliminary orbit determination and for orbit refinement by sampling from the appropriate conditional distributions. We apply our algorithm to forecast the capabilities of LSST to determine orbits for uncatalogued debris around geosynchronous orbits.

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