Bayesian Forecasting of WWW Traffic on the Time Varying Poisson Model

Details Bayesian Forecasting of WWW Traffic on the Time Varying Poisson Model Bayesian Forecasting of WWW Traffic on the Time Varying Poisson Model

2009-06-22

arxiv.org/abs/0906.3923v4

Computer Science

Networking and Internet Architecture

8 pages, 6 figures. This paper was published in Proceeding of The 2009 International Conference on Parallel and Distributed Pr

Scientific paper

Traffic forecasting from past observed traffic data with small calculation complexity is one of important problems for planning of servers and networks. Focusing on World Wide Web (WWW) traffic as fundamental investigation, this paper would deal with Bayesian forecasting of network traffic on the time varying Poisson model from a viewpoint from statistical decision theory. Under this model, we would show that the estimated forecasting value is obtained by simple arithmetic calculation and expresses real WWW traffic well from both theoretical and empirical points of view.

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