Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jul 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3614707g&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 14, CiteID L14707
Mathematics
Probability
3
Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Regional Climate Change, Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation (1854)
Scientific paper
Interannual climate variations associated with El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominate rainfall and temperature variability in southeastern Australia's Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), an important region for agricultural productivity. Following a decade-long dry period, a La Niña during 2007 failed to provide above average rainfall and cool temperatures in the southern half of the MDB, typical of most La Niña events for the region. Instead, annual (winter half-year) rainfall was 17% (35%) below average and maximum temperatures 0.91°C (1.26°C) above average. Based on the past variability between La Niña events, the combined probability of such anomalies is less than 2%. It is likely that these anomalies contain some contribution from a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). However, the IOD and other large-scale circulation features are unlikely to explain the atypical conditions that occurred in the southern MDB during the 2007 La Niña.
Gallant Ailie J. E.
Karoly David J.
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