Attempting to Predict GLE71 by Means of Principal Components Analysis

Details Attempting to Predict GLE71 by Means of Principal Components Analysis Attempting to Predict GLE71 by Means of Principal Components Analysis

Dec 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsh31b2000p&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SH31B-2000

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[7514] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Energetic Particles

Scientific paper

In this work we attempt to determine characteristic signatures of Ground Level Enhancements (GLE's) of Relativistic Solar Particle for the task of prognostic goals: first, in addition of the multipleyears periodicities, among the periodicities found here there are the short to term (ST) periodicities, in the order of days (all of them harmonics of the 11 years solar activity cycle and present in sub-photospheric and coronal layers) and the Ultra short term (UST) periodicities in the order of minutes to hours. By using Wavelet Analysis, we delimitate some patterns in the Galactic cosmic Ray (GCR) background, before the occurrence of GLE events, that could be considered as precursors for these kind of events. Finally by applying the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) it is attempted to place in time future GLE's, particularly GLE71.

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