Asymmetry in the presence of migration stabilizes multistrain disease outbreaks

Details Asymmetry in the presence of migration stabilizes multistrain disease outbreaks Asymmetry in the presence of migration stabilizes multistrain disease outbreaks

2009-07-28

arxiv.org/abs/0907.4935v1

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Populations and Evolution

17 pages, 5 figures, 3 appendices. Submitted version

Scientific paper

We study the effect of migration between coupled populations, or patches, on the stability properties of multistrain disease dynamics. The epidemic model used in this work displays a Hopf bifurcation to oscillations in a single well mixed population. It is shown numerically that migration between two non-identical patches stabilizes the endemic steady state, delaying the onset of large amplitude outbreaks and reducing the total number of infections. This result is motivated by analyzing generic Hopf bifurcations with different frequencies and with diffusive coupling between them. Stabilization of the steady state is again seen, indicating that our observation in the full multistrain model is based on qualitative characteristics of the dynamics rather than on details of the disease model.

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