Asymmetric distribution of aftershocks on large faults in California

Statistics – Methodology

Scientific paper

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Persistence, Memory, Correlations, Clustering, Spatial Analysis, Earthquake Dynamics, Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction, Statistical Seismology

Scientific paper

We examine the relations between spatial symmetry properties of earthquake patterns along faults in California (CA) and local velocity structure images to test the hypothesis that ruptures on bimaterial faults have statistically preferred propagation directions. The analysis employs seismic catalogues for 25 fault zones in CA. We distinguish between clustered and homogeneous parts of each catalogue, using a recently introduced earthquake cluster analysis, and examine asymmetry of offspring with respect to parent events within the clustered portion of each catalogue. The results indicate strong asymmetric patterns along large faults with prominent bimaterial interfaces (e.g. sections of the San Andreas Fault), with enhanced activities in the directions predicted for the local velocity contrasts, and absence of significant asymmetry along most other faults. Assuming the observed asymmetric properties of seismicity reflect the properties of the parent earthquake ruptures, the discussed methodology and results can be used to develop refined estimates of seismic shaking hazard associated with individual fault zones.

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