Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Oct 2007
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007dps....39.3508t&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #39, #35.08; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 39, p.483
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Observation of star occultations is a powerful tool to determine shapes and sizes of asteroids and for revealing possible binary objects. Asteroid diameters measured by this method are in some cases very precise and can be usefully employed for calibrating other indirect size determination techniques, such as those based on thermal infrared radiometry. Furthermore, if the rotational properties of the asteroid are known, hints on its shape can be derived.
Today, thanks to the availability of the Hipparcos mission catalogs, the rate of successfully observed events is acceptable, but only a limited range of asteroid diameters is accessible. In fact, only relatively bright asteroids (more than 40 km in size) have an ephemeris accuracy allowing to predict the occultation path on Earth with a reasonable success probability.
This situation could completely change in future, when ultra-precise astrometry of both stars and asteroids will be available. The forthcoming Gaia mission (ESA) is expected to improve by 2 orders of magnitude the asteroid ephemerides accuracy, providing at the same time an end-of-mission astrometric precision 17 µas for stars at V=15. Also, Gaia will produce milli-magnitude level photometry, allowing for pole and shape determinations for thousands of asteroids.
As a result, the predictability of occultation events and their possibility of exploitation will be dramatically improved. We simulated both the current and future situations numerically. Our results show that in about a decade from now, a network of small 1-m automatic telescopes could provide - in just a few years of operations - a complete census of asteroid diameters down to 10-20 km, and a wealth of sizes for smaller bodies.
Delbo' Marco
Tanga Paolo
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