Asteroid orbit determination using Bayesian probabilities

Details Asteroid orbit determination using Bayesian probabilities Asteroid orbit determination using Bayesian probabilities

Aug 1993

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1993icar..104..255m&link_type=abstract

Icarus (ISSN 0019-1035), vol. 104, no. 2, p. 255-279.

Mathematics

Probability

38

Asteroid Belts, Bayes Theorem, Orbit Calculation, Orbital Elements, Probability Theory, Apollo Asteroids, Astrometry, Monte Carlo Method

Scientific paper

Bayesian a priori and a posteriori probability densities are employed to determine asteroid orbital elements from optical astrometric observations. For near-earth asteroids and Jupiter Trojans, the two-body approximation can yield grossly erroneous uncertainty estimates because of the scattering effect of close planetary encounters or prolonged weak planetary perturbations. For main-belt asteroids, the two-body approximation works efficiently, from which it is inferred that, although the ephemeris must be computed from an integrated orbit, only approximate partial derivatives are needed to attain sufficient accuracy in predicting ephemeris uncertainties. The semimajor and semiminor axes of the 2D 1-sigma sky-plane uncertainty ellipse during the years 1993 to 2005 in the many-body and two-body linear approximations are shown.

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