Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Apr 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002sci...296..132g&link_type=abstract
Science, Volume 296, Issue 5565, pp. 132-136 (2002).
Mathematics
Probability
25
Scientific paper
Integration of the orbit of asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, which is based on radar and optical measurements spanning 51 years, reveals a 20-minute interval in March 2880 when there could be a nonnegligible probability of the 1-kilometer object colliding with Earth. Trajectory knowledge remains accurate until then because of extensive astrometric data, an inclined orbit geometry that reduces in-plane perturbations, and an orbit uncertainty space modulated by gravitational resonance. The approach distance uncertainty in 2880 is determined primarily by uncertainty in the accelerations arising from thermal re-radiation of solar energy absorbed by the asteroid. Those accelerations depend on the spin axis, composition, and surface properties of the asteroid, so that refining the collision probability may require direct inspection by a spacecraft.
Benner Lance A. M.
Chamberlin Alan Bieler
Chesley Steven R.
Chodas Paul W.
Giorgini Jon D.
No associations
LandOfFree
Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1589273