Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 1997
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1997icar..130..259n&link_type=abstract
Icarus, Volume 130, Issue 2, pp. 259-274.
Mathematics
Probability
24
Scientific paper
Radiation energies of bright flashes caused by disintegration of large meteoroids in the atmosphere have been measured using optical sensors on board geostationary satellites. Light curves versus time are available for some of the events. We have worked out several numerical techniques to derive the kinetic energy of the meteoroids that produced the flashes. Spectral opacities of vapor of various types of meteoroids were calculated for a wide range of possible temperatures and densities. Coefficients of conversion of kinetic energy to radiation energy were computed for chondritic and iron meteoroids 10 cm to 10 m in size using radiation-hydrodynamics numerical simulations. Luminous efficiency increases with body size and initial velocity. Some analytical approximations are presented for average conversion coefficients for irons and H-chondrites. A mean value of this coefficient for large meteoroids (1-10 m in size) is about 5-10%. The theory was tested by analyzing the light curves of several events in detail. Kinetic energies of impactors and energy-frequency distribution of 51 bolides, detected during 22 months of systematic observations in 1994-1996, are determined using theoretical values of luminous efficiencies and heat-transfer coefficients. The number of impacts in the energy range from 0.25 to 4 kt TNT is 25 per year and per total surface of the Earth. The energy-frequency distribution is in a rather good agreement with that derived from acoustic observations and the lunar crater record. Acoustic systems have registered one 1 Mt event in 12 years of observation. Optical systems have not detected such an event as yet due to a shorter time of observation. The probability of a 1 Mt impact was estimated by extrapolation of the observational data.
Golub' A. P.
Jacobs Carla
Kosarev I. B.
Nemtchinov Ivan V.
Popova Olga P.
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