Assessing the Threat of Oort Cloud Comet Showers

Details Assessing the Threat of Oort Cloud Comet Showers Assessing the Threat of Oort Cloud Comet Showers

May 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008dda....39.0402k&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, DDA meeting #39, #4.02

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

A field star passes within 5,000 AU of the solar system once every 100 Myrs on average. During these extremely close stellar passages large numbers of Oort Cloud orbits are modified, which drastically increases the flux of long-period comets entering the inner solar system for 2-3 Myrs. We model these stellar-induced comet showers using direct numerical simulations. We find that comet shower strength is determined by the stellar encounter details as well as the structure of the inner Oort Cloud, which is poorly constrained. Using our simulation results, we attempt to build a probability function of comet shower intensity. Knowing the probability for a comet shower of a given intensity to occur helps us to determine whether the impacts from these phenomena have significantly affected conditions on Earth's surface in the past.

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