Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Oct 2000
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2000stin...0020485l&link_type=abstract
Twenty-first Space Simulation Conference: The Future of Space Simulation Testing in the 21st Century, p. 265
Mathematics
Probability
Predictions, Leonid Meteoroids, Meteorite Collisions, Hypervelocity Impact, Comets, Communication Satellites, Mission Planning, Data Transmission, Mathematical Models
Scientific paper
The Leonid meteoroid storm produced by the passage of its parent comet, 55p/Tempel-Tuttle has been a concern for satellite operators. The recent close approach of the comet to the Earth took place around January 17, 1998. The debris cloud was expected to be several hundred to several thousand times higher than normal in the ensuing years when the Earth passes by the comet trail. Leonid meteoroid storm intensity was predicted before by analyses for satellite mission planning. The low observed Zenith Hourly Rate (ZHR) displayed in 1998 was due to the large distance between the particle and the Earth. In 1998, all of the Leonid material was located interior to the Earth's orbit at distances greater than 0.004 AU. In 1999 there will be two streams located interior to the Earth orbit; the first, consisting of material ejected from the comet in 1932, will be 0.0016 AU from the Earth, and the second composed of material ejected from Tempel-Tuttle in 1965 at 0.004 AU. More importantly, there will exist a third stream of cometary debris, located just 0.0008 AU exterior to Earth's orbit. This stream will consist of the material ejected in 1899, and its close proximity to the Earth means that the space shall be subjected to a Gaussian-like Leonid environment. The predicted probability indicates that there will certainly be a storm with ZHR higher than 1000 in November 1999. It is also likely that there will be another Leonid storm in 2000. A procedure to predict the number of hits by the meteoroids was developed using the ZHR prediction model and the orbit data of GEO communication satellites. The data include the attitude of the satellite and its projected area as a function of orbit position. The number and probability of hits are predicted for these satellites during the 1999 Leonid meteoroid storm. The worst case prediction is also included for comparison.
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