Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Feb 1991
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1991phdt........53w&link_type=abstract
Ph.D. Thesis Colorado Univ., Boulder.
Mathematics
Probability
Construction, Interruption, Mathematical Models, Mission Planning, Orbital Assembly, Probability Theory, Project Planning, Robustness (Mathematics), Space Station Freedom, Cost Analysis, Emergencies, Schedules
Scientific paper
Interruptability robustness of a construction project together with its assembly sequence may be measured by calculating the probability of its survival and successful completion in the face of unplanned interruptions of the assembly process. Such an interruption may jeopardize the survival of the structure being assembled, the survival of the support equipment, and/or the safety of the members of the construction crew, depending upon the stage in the assembly sequence when the interruption occurs. The interruption may be due to a number of actors such as: machinery break-downs, environmental damage, worker emergency illness or injury, etc. Each source of interruption has a probability of occurring, and adds an associated probability of loss, schedule delay, and cost to the project. Several options may exist for reducing the consequences of an interruption at a given point in the assembly sequence, including altering the assembly sequence, adding extra components or equipment as interruptability 'insurance', increasing the capability of support facilities, etc. Each option may provide a different overall performance of the project as it relates to success, assembly time, and project cost. The Interruptability Robustness Model was devised and provides a method which allows the overall interruptability robustness of construction of a project design and its assembly sequence to be quantified. In addition, it identifies the susceptibility to interruptions for the assembly sequence at all points within the assembly sequence. The model is applied to the present problem of quantifying and improving interruptability robustness during the construction of Space Station Freedom. This application was used as a touchstone for devising the Interruptability Robustness Model. However, the model may be utilized to assist in the analysis of interruptability robustness for other space-related construction projects such as the lunar base and orbital assembly of the manned Mars spacecraft, as well as complex terrestrial construction projects such as undersea laboratories, Antarctic bases, skyscrapers, etc.
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