Arrival Times of Interplanetary CMEs and Shocks into the Earth's Vicinity: STEREO Observations and Analytical Modeling

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Scientific paper

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) are one of the largest disturbances in the solar system. ICMEs and their associated shocks are the main cause of intense geomagnetic perturbations, that might affect satellite orbits and telecommunications among other systems. These important repercussions in the Space Weather have lead to a continuous effort to predict the arrival times of the ICMEs and their shocks into the Earth's vicinity, but still the current accuracy in their arrival time to Earth of few hours needs further ramification, in particular for operational purposes. White light images from the STEREO coronagraphs and heliospheric imagers provide an early detection of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and ICMEs. In February 6, 2011, spacecrafts A and B were 180 degrees apart, each one looking down on a different hemisphere of the Sun and therefore they view from the side Earth-directed events, allowing a better determination of the physical parameters of the events and their kinematics in particular. We take advantage of this configuration and determine the kinematics of the CMEs and ICMEs of Feb 15th (01:56), March 7th (19:43) and June 21st (16:03 UT), 2011. These events have an interplanetary counterpart with Earth arrivals in Feb 18th (00:40 UT), March 10th (05:45 UT) and Jun 23rd (02:18 UT) respectively, as observed by the ACE spacecraft. We perform 3D fittings of the CME-ICME-shock systems viewed by COR1, COR2 HI1 and HI2 to deduce their kinematics and we use our measurements to constrain an analytical model of ICME and shock propagation from the Sun to Earth and compare with the in-situ arrival times to Earth's orbit. This model is applied where the dynamic pressure parameter dominates the solar wind dynamics and it is focused on the role of the transmission of momentum in the ICME-shock system.

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