Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 1980
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1980spfl...22..334s&link_type=abstract
Spaceflight, vol. 22, Nov.-Dec. 1980, p. 334-337.
Mathematics
Probability
Exobiology, Extraterrestrial Life, Space Colonies, Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Milky Way Galaxy, Probability Theory, Project Seti
Scientific paper
The paper presents a summary of the proceedings of the conference entitled 'Where Are They. A Symposium on the Implications of our Failure to Observe Extraterrestrials', held at the University of Maryland, College Park, on Nov. 2-3, 1979, as an indication of the swing of astronomers' opinion to skepticism regarding the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence. The major line of reasoning throughout the conference is presented as the argument that if there are indeed millions or even billions of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations, then at least one of them by now should have made their presence indisputably known to us in the process of colonization, and the failure of this to happen is evidence that life in the universe is exceedingly rare. Attention is then given to models concerning the expected spread of colonization across the Galaxy, the rarity of life-supporting planets, means that an advanced technology might use for interstellar colonization, arguments that advanced civilizations can not have yet visited the earth, and the low probability of the origin of life even under favorable conditions. The importance of the recently proposed concept of human space colonies to the ideas of the conference is emphasized, and implications of the lack of extraterrestrial civilizations for the potential of human space colonizations are indicated.
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