Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?

Details Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?

Jun 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3612702w&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 12, CiteID L12702

Statistics

26

Oceanography: Physical: Enso (4922), Paleoceanography: El Nino (4522), Geographic Location: Pacific Ocean, Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Atmospheric Processes: Paleoclimatology (0473, 4900)

Scientific paper

A control simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 global coupled GCM, run for 2000 years with its atmospheric composition, solar irradiance, and land cover held fixed at 1860 values, exhibits strong interdecadal and intercentennial modulation of its ENSO behavior. To the extent that such modulation is realistic, it could attach large uncertainties to ENSO metrics diagnosed from centennial and shorter records - with important implications for historical and paleo records, climate projections, and model assessment and intercomparison. Analysis of the wait times between ENSO warm events suggests that such slow modulation need not require multidecadal memory; it can arise simply from Poisson statistics applied to ENSO's interannual time scale and seasonal phase-locking.

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