Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

Details Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

Oct 2000

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2000angeo..18.1349p&link_type=abstract

Annales Geophysicae, vol. 18, Issue 10, pp.1349-1359

Computer Science

Sound

2

Meterology And Atmospheric Dynamics (Mesoscale Meteorology, General) - General (New Fields)

Scientific paper

A nonlinear forecasting method was used to predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance. The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding. The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction results.

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