Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Jan 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002iaf..confe.916c&link_type=abstract
IAF abstracts, 34th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, The Second World Space Congress, held 10-19 October, 2002 in Houston, TX, USA.,
Mathematics
Logic
Scientific paper
Any envisioned future with ubiquitous space transportation systems as defined by NASA's Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) will rely on revolutionary improvements in the development and integration of technologies. Given the limitation of financial resources on both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need a method to assist them in the prioritization of advanced space transportation technological investment. The Abbreviated Technology Identification, Evaluation, And Selection (ATIES) methodology described here is exercised to leap this gulf of evaluation through a systematic aggregation of decision-making techniques and sundry probabilistic methods. The process is applied to a Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) based in-space transportation system with an atmospheric transfer vehicle called a Mars Reusable Excursion Vehicle (MREV) and transit/orbital and surface habitats (based upon the Mars Orbit Basing, MOB, concept developed at NASA Headquarters). The candidate architecture includes a crewed transport to Mars and surface landing using the MREV. Three potential enhancing technologies were used in this analysis: carbon nano-tube structures, triple junction photovoltaic arrays, and super-conducting Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) systems. Feasible technology portfolios (combinations of technologies) that met annual and cumulative program funding constraints were then assessed as to their impact upon the system and subsequent overall metrics. An analysis module for assessing programmatic and performance uncertainties associated with future transportation systems was developed by combining the approach of a spreadsheet-based meta-model with capability to perform Monte Carlo simulations to generate cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). The Reduced Order Simulation for Evaluation of Technologies and Transportation Architectures (ROSETTA) model is a spreadsheet-based meta-model which is a representation of the design process for a specific architecture (e.g. ETO, in-space LEO-GEO, HEDS). This ROSETTA model was developed to evaluate the implications of various technology combinations on system-level output metrics that are eventually aggregated into an Overall Evaluation Criterion (OEC). The ROSETTA model in the ATIES process is an attempt to couple the knowledge inherent in legacy, high fidelity codes with lack of knowledge about the future (and specifically the impact of technology) in order to obtain robust output metrics. This methodology is a technique that breaks the bonds of traditional design and analysis and their reliance on historical databases. The goal of this process is to shift from merely modeling evolutionary change for technology managers towards indicating the optimum path for revolutionary change.
Charania A.
Olds J. R.
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