Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Aug 1983
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1983pnas...80.5151b&link_type=abstract
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Volume 80, Issue 16, pp. 5151-5155
Mathematics
Probability
27
Scientific paper
An explanation is proposed for the observed and often discussed clustering of long-period comet aphelia on the sky. Poisson and several multinomial distributions are applied to the most conspicuous cluster, considering only the 80 ``new'' and 59 ``intermediate'' comets with the best-determined orbits. The observed number of aphelion points in adjacent areas in two tests with 24 and 36 equal sky areas, respectively, shows a large deviation from a random distribution. The expected probability frequency for this to happen by chance is <0.1% for the ``new'' comets alone; it is further reduced when ``new'' and ``intermediate'' comets are combined. When these comets are analyzed separately from others, it is found that the clustering is the result of perturbations of their original orbits by the passage of a star, or a stellar system, through Oort's cloud a few million years ago. Because the statistical effect on the change of a comet's angular momentum about the sun is proportional to the square of the ratio of the mass to the velocity of a star relative to the sun, it is a priori probable that passages by a few stars should produce clustering of the aphelia, as is discussed in detail.
Biermann Ludwig
Huebner Walter F.
Lust Rh.
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