Aphelion Clustering of ``New'' Comets: Star Tracks through Oort's Cloud

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

An explanation is proposed for the observed and often discussed clustering of long-period comet aphelia on the sky. Poisson and several multinomial distributions are applied to the most conspicuous cluster, considering only the 80 ``new'' and 59 ``intermediate'' comets with the best-determined orbits. The observed number of aphelion points in adjacent areas in two tests with 24 and 36 equal sky areas, respectively, shows a large deviation from a random distribution. The expected probability frequency for this to happen by chance is <0.1% for the ``new'' comets alone; it is further reduced when ``new'' and ``intermediate'' comets are combined. When these comets are analyzed separately from others, it is found that the clustering is the result of perturbations of their original orbits by the passage of a star, or a stellar system, through Oort's cloud a few million years ago. Because the statistical effect on the change of a comet's angular momentum about the sun is proportional to the square of the ratio of the mass to the velocity of a star relative to the sun, it is a priori probable that passages by a few stars should produce clustering of the aphelia, as is discussed in detail.

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