Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Nov 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3221714s&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 21, CiteID L21714
Mathematics
Probability
10
Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
Scientific paper
Several climate simulations, performed with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model, are made to evaluate the influences of anthropogenic and natural external forcing on the observed fluctuation of the Decadal El Niño-Southern Oscillation (DENSO) during the second half of the 20th century. A comparison of DENSO in the model simulations and the observations suggests that the observed variability includes an unusually large trend relative to that expected from purely natural variations. Moreover, we show that there is a large probability that this trend is mainly attributable to anthropogenic factors.
Kimoto Masahide
Nozawa Toru
Shiogama Hideo
Watanabe Masahiro
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