Other
Scientific paper
Apr 1982
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1982georl...9..485b&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 9, Apr. 1982, p. 485-488.
Other
2
Air Pollution, Atmospheric Composition, Environment Effects, Man Environment Interactions, Ozonometry, Abundance, Chlorocarbons, Environmental Monitoring, Fluorocarbons, Long Term Effects, Periodic Variations, Switzerland
Scientific paper
Average annual levels of total column ozone at Arosa, Switzerland, have been analyzed to determine the size of long-term trend variation due to natural causes. The estimated standard error of such a trend over a ten-year period is 0.6 percent of mean ozone level per decade. This estimate tends to decline for periods longer than 10 years. If this estimate is combined with estimates of other error components in estimating a trend, a total threshold of 1.8 percent/decade is obtained. This is the threshold for detecting a trend that exceeds the variation that could be expected from both short and long term natural and measurement variation. Hence, this might be considered the threshold of detecting a man-made change in the form of a linear or nearly linear trend. This threshold is likely to be smaller for trends that are studied over periods longer than 10 years.
Bishop Louise
Hill W. J.
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