An Updated Assessment Of The Impact Threat From 99942 Apophis

Details An Updated Assessment Of The Impact Threat From 99942 Apophis An Updated Assessment Of The Impact Threat From 99942 Apophis

Sep 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009dps....41.4306c&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #41, #43.06

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Scientific paper

The potentially hazardous asteroid 99942 Apophis has been the subject of widespread attention, in both the technical and public arenas, at first due to a potential for impact in 2029 and later for the possibility of post-2029 impacts. While it has been understood since late 2004 that the 2029 encounter will be close ( 38,000 km from the geocenter) but harmless, potential resonant return impacts in 2036 and 2037 have persisted. We apply new astrometry that substantially extends the available data arc [Tholen et al. DPS 2008, 2009], and reduces uncertainties by 50%, to obtain a new impact hazard assessment. We show that the new orbit uncertainties in 2029 are comparable to, or even smaller than, the likely dispersions induced by the Yarkovsky effect and so this nongravitational acceleration can no longer be neglected in the analysis. We describe a technique to account for Yarkovsky dispersion in the risk assessment.

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