An Overview Of "Forecasting The Operational All-clear"

Details An Overview Of "Forecasting The Operational All-clear" An Overview Of "Forecasting The Operational All-clear"

May 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009spd....40.1605b&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #40, #16.05; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.840

Computer Science

Performance

Scientific paper

Recently, a workshop entitled "Forecasting the Operational All-clear" was co-hosted by NASA/SRAG, NOAA/SWPC and NWRA/CoRA. For this workshop, a number of flare prediction algorithms were run on common data sets, with consistent definitions of what constitutes an event. We present an initial comparison of the performance of the predictions, using standard verification statistics, with an emphasis on being able to predict intervals when no major events take place. The majority of the algorithms rely on data which can be derived from line of sight magnetic field observations, but predictions based exclusively on flare history were also included, to provide a baseline against which to make comparisons.

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