An objective statistical test for eccentricity forcing of Oligo-Miocene climate

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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4910 Astronomical Forcing, 4934 Insolation Forcing, 4946 Milankovitch Theory, 4994 Instruments And Techniques, 9604 Cenozoic

Scientific paper

We seek a maximally objective test for the presence of orbital features in Oligocene and Miocene δ18O records from marine sediments. Changes in Earth's orbital eccentricity are thought to be an important control on the long term variability of climate during the Oligocene and Miocene Epochs. However, such an important control from eccentricity is surprising because eccentricity has relatively little influence on Earth's annual average insolation budget. Nevertheless, if significant eccentricity variability is present, it would provide important insight into the operation of the climate system at long timescales. Here we use previously published data, but using a chronology which is initially independent of orbital assumptions, to test for the presence of eccentricity period variability in the Oligocene/Miocene sediment records. In contrast to the sawtooth climate record of the Pleistocene, the Oligocene and Miocene climate record appears smooth and symmetric and does not reset itself every hundred thousand years. This smooth variation, as well as the time interval spanning many eccentricity periods makes Oligocene and Miocene paleorecords very suitable for evaluating the importance of eccentricity forcing. First, we construct time scales depending only upon the ages of geomagnetic reversals with intervening ages linearly interpolated with depth. Such a single age-depth relationship is, however, too uncertain to assess whether orbital features are present. Thus, we construct a second depth-derived age-model by averaging ages across multiple sediment cores which have, at least partly, independent accumulation rate histories. But ages are still too uncertain to permit unambiguous detection of orbital variability. Thus we employ limited tuning assumptions and measure the degree by orbital period variability increases using spectral power estimates. By tuning we know that we are biasing the record toward showing orbital variations, but we account for this bias in our statistical assessment of the significance of these orbital features. We use synthetic data with a priori known spectrum to model the effect our tuning algorithm has on the data, estimating how much power can be induced at eccentricity periods by tuning. In addition, we explore the implications of tuning only to obliquity or precession for the power concentrated at eccentricity periods.

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