An objective method for forecasting solar flares

Details An objective method for forecasting solar flares An objective method for forecasting solar flares

Feb 1981

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1981aifo.reptq....n&link_type=abstract

Interim Report Air Force Geophysics Lab., Hanscom AFB, MA.

Statistics

Discriminant Analysis (Statistics), Multivariate Statistical Analysis, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Flares, Classifications, Computerized Simulation

Scientific paper

Solar parameters derived from the region analysis program at the NOAA Space Environment Services Center (SESC) are submitted to a multivariate discriminant analysis (MVDA) in which the parameters relevant to flare prediction are identified and incorporated in a classification procedure to produce a flare forecast. The analysis uses two years of data (6095 solar active region-days). The MVDA forecast is compared with a subjective forecast derived from the SESC forecast during the same period, and is found to have greater accuracy overall. Specific recommendations are made concerning the application of the technique in a forecasting operation, and in the types of data required for future improvement.

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