Statistics – Applications
Scientific paper
2010-10-07
Annals of Applied Statistics 2010, Vol. 4, No. 1, 299-319
Statistics
Applications
Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS289 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Ins
Scientific paper
10.1214/09-AOAS289
This paper proposes an information theory approach to estimate the number of changepoints and their locations in a climatic time series. A model is introduced that has an unknown number of changepoints and allows for series autocorrelations, periodic dynamics, and a mean shift at each changepoint time. An objective function gauging the number of changepoints and their locations, based on a minimum description length (MDL) information criterion, is derived. A genetic algorithm is then developed to optimize the objective function. The methods are applied in the analysis of a century of monthly temperatures from Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
Lee Thomas C. M.
Lu QiQi
Lund Robert
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