Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics – Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
Scientific paper
2009-09-25
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
16 pages, 9 figures, to appear in MNRAS
Scientific paper
We discuss a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radial velocities in planet searches. We use a combination of exact and approximate analytic and numerical techniques to efficiently evaluate chi-squared for multiple values of orbital parameters, and to carry out the marginalization integrals for a single planet including the possibility of a long term trend. The result is a robust algorithm that is rapid enough for use in real time analysis that outputs constraints on orbital parameters and false alarm probabilities for the planet and long term trend. The constraints on parameters and odds ratio that we derive compare well with previous calculations based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and we compare our results with other techniques for estimating false alarm probabilities and errors in derived orbital parameters. False alarm probabilities from the Bayesian analysis are systematically higher than frequentist false alarm probabilities, due to the different accounting of the number of trials. We show that upper limits on the velocity amplitude derived for circular orbits are a good estimate of the upper limit on the amplitude of eccentric orbits for eccentricities less than about 0.5.
Cumming Andrew
Dragomir Diana
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