An evaluation of a sun-weather mechanism using a general circulation model of the atmosphere

Mathematics – Logic

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

A hemispheric general circulation model has been used to investigate the impact of a high latitude ozone deficit in the stratosphere induced by a solar proton event. A hypothesis is presented which delineates the various aspects of how such an event could affect tropospheric synoptic conditions. Two experiments, with a transient ozone deficit equal to 6% of the total ozone column, were performed corresponding to different synoptic conditions, together with appropriate control and noise experiments. A trigger mechanism was presumably activated in the model because a strong enhancement, 25%, in the strength of the mean zonal wind speed in the mid-latitude upper troposphere was obtained together with other responses, 20-24 days after the ozone deficit was inserted. This large response was identified with the ozone deficit being located in the region of the wave guide controlling the wave energy flux between the tropospheric mid-latitudes and high latitude stratosphere. This wave guide apparently focused the effects of the ozone deficit and provided the requisite mechanical linkage to the troposphere. An additional experiment with the ozone deficit located at 45° latitude failed to produce a similar response. Detailed analysis of hemispheric, zonal, and local meteorological changes is presented. The results are broadly supportive of a possible sun-weather effect.

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