An estimate for the size of cycle 23 based on near minimum conditions

Details An estimate for the size of cycle 23 based on near minimum conditions An estimate for the size of cycle 23 based on near minimum conditions

Apr 1998

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1998jgr...103.6595w&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 103, p. 6595

Other

39

Solar Cycles, Sunspots, Solar Magnetic Field, Magnetic Flux, Data Bases, Solar Flux

Scientific paper

The first occurrence of a high-latitude, new cycle spot group for cycle 23 was in May 1996, in conjunction with a minimum in the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number. Since then, new cycle spot groups have become more predominant, and the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number has slowly risen. Such behavior indicates that new cycle 23 probably had its minimum annual average sunspot number, R(min), equal to 8.7, in 1996. Because this value is larger than the average for R(min), cycle 23 is expected to have a maximum amplitude, R(max), that, likewise, will be larger than average, suggesting further that it probably will be both fast rising and of shorter than average length. Another parameter well correlated with R(max) is the minimum amplitude of the aa geomagnetic index, aa(min), which usually occurs either in the year of R(min) occurrence or, more often, in the following year. For 1996 the annual average of aa measured 18.6. Presuming this value to be aa(min) for cycle 23, we calculate cycle 23's R(max) to be about 171.0 +/- 17.6, based on the stronger bivariate fit of R(max) versus both R(min) and aa(min). Comparison of this estimate with others, using various combinations of parameters, yields an overlap in the prediction intervals for R(max) of about 168 +/- 15. Thus this study supports the view that cycle 23 will have an R(max) that will be larger than average but smaller than was seen for cycle 19, the largest cycle on record with R(max) = 190.2.

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