An empirical model for prediction of geomagnetic storms using initially observed CME parameters at the Sun

Details An empirical model for prediction of geomagnetic storms using initially observed CME parameters at the Sun An empirical model for prediction of geomagnetic storms using initially observed CME parameters at the Sun

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010jgra..11512108k&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 115, Issue A12, CiteID A12108

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

Space Weather: Forecasting (1922, 2722), Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Coronal Mass Ejections (2101), Space Weather: Magnetic Storms (2788), Space Weather: Solar Effects

Scientific paper

In this study, we discuss the general behaviors of geomagnetic storm strength associated with observed parameters of coronal mass ejection (CME) such as speed (V) and earthward direction (D) of CMEs as well as the longitude (L) and magnetic field orientation (M) of overlaying potential fields of the CME source region, and we develop an empirical model to predict geomagnetic storm occurrence with its strength (gauged by the Dst index) in terms of these CME parameters. For this we select 66 halo or partial halo CMEs associated with M-class and X-class solar flares, which have clearly identifiable source regions, from 1997 to 2003. After examining how each of these CME parameters correlates with the geoeffectiveness of the CMEs, we find several properties as follows: (1) Parameter D best correlates with storm strength Dst; (2) the majority of geoeffective CMEs have been originated from solar longitude 15°W, and CMEs originated away from this longitude tend to produce weaker storms; (3) correlations between Dst and the CME parameters improve if CMEs are separated into two groups depending on whether their magnetic fields are oriented southward or northward in their source regions. Based on these observations, we present two empirical expressions for Dst in terms of L, V, and D for two groups of CMEs, respectively. This is a new attempt to predict not only the occurrence of geomagnetic storms, but also the storm strength (Dst) solely based on the CME parameters.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

An empirical model for prediction of geomagnetic storms using initially observed CME parameters at the Sun does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with An empirical model for prediction of geomagnetic storms using initially observed CME parameters at the Sun, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and An empirical model for prediction of geomagnetic storms using initially observed CME parameters at the Sun will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1295287