Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
May 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agusmsh52a..02l&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2002, abstract #SH52A-02
Mathematics
Probability
7509 Corona, 7513 Coronal Mass Ejections, 2111 Ejecta, Driver Gases, And Magnetic Clouds, 2139 Interplanetary Shocks
Scientific paper
The probability of a coronal mass ejection (CME) occurring is linked to the appearance of structures, called sigmoids, in satellite X-ray images of the sun. By examination of near real time images, we can detect sigmoids visually and estimate the probability of a CME and the probability that it will cause a major geomagnetic storm. We have devised a pattern recognition system to detect the sigmoids in Yohkoh and GOES (when available) X-ray images automatically. When implemented in a near real time environment, this system should allow long term, 3 - 7 day, forecasts of CMEs and their potential for causing major geomagnetic storms.
Bernasconi Pietro N.
LaBonte Barry J.
Rust David Maurice
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