Other
Scientific paper
Nov 2007
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007georl..3422505c&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 22, CiteID L22505
Other
18
Geographic Location: Antarctica (4207), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Global Change: Regional Climate Change, Atmospheric Processes: Polar Meteorology, Atmospheric Processes: Instruments And Techniques
Scientific paper
We assess 19 coupled models from the IPCC fourth assessment report archive from the simulation of the 20th century, based on the calculation of ``skill scores.'' The models show a wide range of scores when assessed against Antarctic or global measures of large-scale circulation indices. Except for continental mass balance, the model average proves a more reliable estimate than that for any one model. Individual models show a very wide scatter in simulated Antarctic temperature trends over the past century; the large trend over the Antarctic peninsula in winter is not well represented, which makes it clear that whatever has been driving these trends is not well captured by many GCMs. Trends in temperature are clearly linked to the sea ice simulation, another variable that most models do not simulate well.
Bracegirdle Thomas J.
Connolley William M.
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