An accurate and efficient method for prediction of the long-term evolution of space debris in the geosynchronous region

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Geosynchronous Orbits, Numerical Integration, Space Debris, Spacecraft Motion, Spacecraft Orbits, Accuracy, Computer Programs, Ephemerides, Orbital Elements, Perturbation Theory

Scientific paper

Planetary Observer High Accuracy Orbit Prediction Program (POHOP), an existing numerical integrator, was modified with the solar and lunar formulae developed by T.C. Van Flandern and K.F. Pulkkinen to provide the accuracy required to evaluate long-term orbit characteristics of objects on the geosynchronous region. The orbit of a 1000 kg class spacecraft is numerically integrated over 50 years using both the original and the more accurate solar and lunar ephemerides methods. Results of this study demonstrate that, over the long term, for an object located in the geosynchronous region, the more accurate solar and lunar ephemerides effects on the objects's position are significantly different than using the current POHOP ephemeris.

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