Amplified carbon release from vast West Siberian peatlands by 2100

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Global Change: Biogeochemical Cycles, Processes, And Modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 4805, 4912), Hydrology: Chemistry Of Fresh Water, Hydrology: Frozen Ground, Hydrology: Streamflow, Hydrology: Wetlands (0497)

Scientific paper

Extensive new data from previously unstudied Siberian streams and rivers suggest that mobilization of currently frozen, high-latitude soil carbon is likely over the next century in response to predicted Arctic warming. We present dissolved organic carbon (DOC) measurements from ninety-six watersheds in West Siberia, a region that contains the world's largest stores of peat carbon, exports massive volumes of freshwater and DOC to the Arctic Ocean, and is warming faster than the Arctic as a whole. The sample sites span ~106 km2 over a large climatic gradient (~55-68°N), providing data on a much broader spatial scale than previous studies and for the first time explicitly examining stream DOC in permafrost peatland environments. Our results show that cold, permafrost-influenced watersheds release little DOC to streams, regardless of the extent of peatland cover. However, we find considerably higher concentrations in warm, permafrost-free watersheds, rising sharply as a function of peatland cover. The two regimes are demarcated by the position of the -2°C mean annual air temperature (MAAT) isotherm, which is also approximately coincident with the permafrost limit. Climate model simulations for the next century predict near-doubling of West Siberian land surface areas with a MAAT warmer than -2°C, suggesting up to ~700% increases in stream DOC concentrations and ~2.7-4.3 Tg yr-1 (~29-46%) increases in DOC flux to the Arctic Ocean.

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