AL and Dst Predictions with the Real-Time WINDMI Model

Details AL and Dst Predictions with the Real-Time WINDMI Model AL and Dst Predictions with the Real-Time WINDMI Model

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsa53a1361m&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SA53A-1361

Statistics

Computation

2721 Field-Aligned Currents And Current Systems (2409), 2722 Forecasting (7924, 7964), 2778 Ring Current, 2788 Magnetic Storms And Substorms (7954), 2790 Substorms

Scientific paper

First results are presented of the space weather forecasting capability of the real-time WINDMI model that has been operating since February 2006 as a physics based AL and Dst prediction tool. The well documented WINDMI model is a network of eight coupled ordinary differential equations which describe the transfer of power from the solar wind through the geomagnetic tail, the ionosphere, and ring current in the solar WIND driven Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system. WINDMI includes ring current energization physics from substrom injections and outputs a predicted westward auroral electojet index (AL) and equatorial geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (Dst). At the time of abstract submission (August 2006) real-time WINDMI has captured two storms with the first alarm being sent by email for a moderate -150 nT storm on 14-15 April 2006 and a second -100 nT storm on 19-20 August 2006. During the August 2006 storm period the WINDMI model was a more consistent Dst predictor than the Kyoto WDC Quicklook Dst data which has an incorrect offset of ~-100 nT. Real-time WINDMI uses real-time solar wind data from received from ACE every ten minutes to derive in less than one minute of computational time a predicted AL and Dst and magnetopause standoff distance. Real-time WINDMI predicts the AL index one hour earlier than the data is available from the Kyoto WDC Quicklook website and the Dst index two hours earlier. Every ten minutes real-time AL and Dst data and WINDMI predictions are shown on this website: http://orion.ph.utexas.edu/~windmi/realtime/. The 18 physical parameters of WINDMI are approximated analytically from planetary parameters and optimized within physically allowable ranges using the genetic algorithm. Real-time WINDMI parameters are optimized every hour based on 8 hours of past model/data comparison. In addition to the geomagnetic indices the model predicts the major energy components and power transfers in the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The work is supported by NSF-ATM grant 0539099.

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