Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Mar 1994
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1994georl..21..497l&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters (ISSN 0094-8276), vol. 21, no. 6, p. 497-500
Mathematics
Logic
5
Alaska, Earthquakes, Geological Faults, Islands, Plates (Tectonics), Predictions, Tectonics, Error Analysis, Geodynamics, Pacific Ocean, Spatial Distribution, Subduction (Geology)
Scientific paper
The 13 May 1993 M(sub s) 6.9 Shumagin earthquake had an aftershock sequence of 247 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than or equal to 1.5 by 1 June 1993. Of these aftershocks, 79 were located by using S-P travel times at the only two stations within 570 km of the mainshock epicenter. The rupture area inferred from the aftershocks is about 600 sq km and we estimate for the mainshock a mean fault displacement of 1.0 m and a 28 bar stress drop. The magnitude-frequency plots give a b-value for the aftershock sequence of about 0.4, which is low compared to the background value of approximately 0.8. The decay of the aftershock sequence followed the modified Omori law with a p-value of 0.79, which is also lower than the typical values of about 1.1 observed in Alaska. Both of these facts can be interpreted as indicating relatively high ambient stress in the Shumagin seismic gap and the possibility that the 13 May earthquake was a foreshock to a larger gap-filling event to occur within the next few years.
Lu Zhong
McNutt Steve
Stihler Scott
Tytgat Guy
Wyss Max
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