Aftershock prediction for high-frequency financial markets' dynamics

Details Aftershock prediction for high-frequency financial markets' dynamics Aftershock prediction for high-frequency financial markets' dynamics

2012-03-27

arxiv.org/abs/1203.5893v1

Economy

Quantitative Finance

Statistical Finance

Contribution to the proceedings of the Econophysics Kolkata VI International Workshop, 12 pages, 4 figures

Scientific paper

The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been shown to be common to most financial assets, both at high and low frequency. Its present-day description relies on an empirical characterization proposed by Omori at the end of 1800 for seismic earthquakes. We point out the limited predictive power in this phenomenological approach and present a stochastic model, based on the scaling symmetry of financial assets, which is potentially capable to predict aftershocks occurrence, given the main shock magnitude. Comparisons with S&P high-frequency data confirm this predictive potential.

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