Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002iaf..confe.254g&link_type=abstract
IAF abstracts, 34th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, The Second World Space Congress, held 10-19 October, 2002 in Houston, TX, USA.,
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
The ability to place payloads [satellites] into orbit as and when required, often referred to as launch on demand, continues to be an elusive and yet largely unfulfilled goal. But what is the value of achieving launch on demand [LOD], and what metrics are appropriate? Achievement of a desired level of LOD capability must consider transportation system thruput, alternative transportation systems that comprise the transportation architecture, transportation demand, reliability and failure recovery characteristics of the alternatives, schedule guarantees, launch delays, payload integration schedules, procurement policies, and other factors. Measures of LOD capability should relate to the objective of the transportation architecture: the placement of payloads into orbit as and when required. Launch on demand capability must be defined in probabilistic terms such as the probability of not incurring a delay in excess of T when it is determined that it is necessary to place a payload into orbit. Three specific aspects of launch on demand are considered: [1] the ability to recover from adversity [i.e., a launch failure] and to keep up with the steady-state demand for placing satellites into orbit [this has been referred to as operability and resiliency], [2] the ability to respond to the requirement to launch a satellite when the need arises unexpectedly either because of an unexpected [random] on-orbit satellite failure that requires replacement or because of the sudden recognition of an unanticipated requirement, and [3] the ability to recover from adversity [i.e., a launch failure] during the placement of a constellation into orbit. The objective of this paper is to outline a formal approach for analyzing alternative transportation architectures in terms of their ability to provide a LOD capability. The economic aspect of LOD is developed by establishing a relationship between scheduling and the elimination of on-orbit spares while achieving the desired level of on-orbit availability. Results of an analysis are presented. The implications of launch on demand are addressed for each of the above three situations and related architecture performance metrics and computer simulation models are described that may be used to evaluate the implications of architecture and policy changes in terms of LOD requirements. The models and metrics are aimed at providing answers to such questions as: How well does a specified space transportation architecture respond to satellite launch demand and changes thereto? How well does a normally functioning and apparently architecture respond to unanticipated needs? What is the effect of a modification to the architecture on its ability to respond to satellite launch demand, including responding to unanticipated needs? What is the cost of the architecture [including facilities, operations, inventory, and satellites]? What is the sensitivity of overall architecture effectiveness and cost to various transportation system delays? What is the effect of adding [or eliminating] a launch vehicle or family of vehicles to [from] the architecture on its effectiveness and cost? What is the value of improving launch vehicle and satellite compatibility and what are the effects on probability of delay statistics and cost of designing for multi-launch vehicle compatibility
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