A Theoretical Framework for the Analysis of the West Nile Virus Epidemic

Details A Theoretical Framework for the Analysis of the West Nile Virus Epidemic A Theoretical Framework for the Analysis of the West Nile Virus Epidemic

2004-03-13

arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0403014v1

Mathematical and Computer Modelling vol. 42 (2005), issue 3/4, pages 313-324.

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Populations and Evolution

12 pages, 9 postscript figures

Scientific paper

10.1016/j.mcm.2004.08.012

We present a model for the growth of West Nile virus in mosquito and bird populations based on observations of the initial epidemic in the U.S. Increase of bird mortality as a result of infection, which is a feature of the epidemic, is found to yield an effect which is observable in principle, viz., periodic variations in the extent of infection. The vast difference between mosquito and bird lifespans, another peculiarity of the system, is shown to lead to interesting consequences regarding delay in the onset of the steady-state infection. An outline of a framework is provided to treat mosquito diffusion and bird migration.

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