A sunspot maximum prediction using a neural network

Details A sunspot maximum prediction using a neural network A sunspot maximum prediction using a neural network

Feb 1990

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1990stin...9113392k&link_type=abstract

Unknown

Computer Science

Computerized Simulation, Neural Nets, Solar Flares, Sunspots, Solar Cycles, Space Stations, Spacecraft Environments, Standard Deviation

Scientific paper

Based on the rapid increase in the sunspot numbers for the current solar cycle, the current cycle (number 22) is expected to produce the largest number of major solar flares of any cycle in recent history. Since a number of different types of spacecraft anomalies are related maxima in the solar activity, it is important to predict both the amplitude of the solar cycle and the time at which the maximum is expected to occur. A novel approach was taken to making such a prediction. Neural Network Simulation Software from California Scientific Software was used to predict the maximum 13 month smoothed sunspot number for cycle 22 and the month in which this maximum will occur. The neural network predicts the maximum sunspot number for cycle 22 to be 194 + or - 26, to occur 42 months (March 1990) after the minimum. The uncertainty in the prediction is taken to be the standard deviation of the difference between the predicted sunspot maximum and the observed sunspot maximum for 15 test cases taken from previous cycles. The prediction is in line with the predictions by NASA, 195 + or - 40, to occur in February 1990, and by NOAA, Space Environment Laboratory, 203 + or - 30, to occur in March 1990.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

A sunspot maximum prediction using a neural network does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with A sunspot maximum prediction using a neural network, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and A sunspot maximum prediction using a neural network will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1843827