A Successful Prediction of the Onset of Solar Cycle 24

Details A Successful Prediction of the Onset of Solar Cycle 24 A Successful Prediction of the Onset of Solar Cycle 24

May 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010aas...21640101s&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #216, #401.01; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.857

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Scientific paper

Using synoptic magnetic charts from NSO and SOHO MDI, we examined the latitudinal evolution of magnetic flux distribution for the last three solar cycles (21-23), seeking clues to the delay in the onset of cycle 24. The onset as defined here is the initial step-like increase in global solar activity after solar minimum. It is signaled by an order-of-magnitude increase in the soft X-ray flux and a rapid global eruption of new-cycle strong-field magnetic flux in middle latitudes, while old-cycle flux disappears. Similar onsets were observed in cycles 21, 22, and 23. The ratio of the strong-field magnetic flux at mid-latitudes to that near the equator gives a measure of new-cycle to old-cycle magnetic flux. It is a highly sensitive parameter for tracking the progression of the solar cycle, decreasing a few orders of magnitude as sunspots appear at successively lower latitudes. For cycles 21, 22, and 23, this ratio turned around and ramped up about a year before onset. Based on this pattern, we predicted an onset of cycle 24 in late 2008/early 2009 as of three years ago. However, the decay of cycle 23 and the early phase of cycle 24 did not quite fit the template. The ramp up was much slower and the northern and southern hemispheres were out of phase: the ratio had turned around in the north, while the south maintained significant old-cycle activity (i.e., strong-field flux at low latitudes). This apparently anomalous behavior prompted us about 18 months ago to revise our earlier estimate of the cycle-24 onset, delaying it by a year. Right on schedule, a sustained jump in soft X-ray flux occurred in December 2009, with most of the new-cycle activity in the north; cycle 24 began blossoming in the south in February 2010.

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